Why Kyoto mean nothing, personally what to do next?

During the Internet chatter about the recent Eastern Australia Dust Storm. Some overseas people quipped about Australia not being a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol. Others returned fire, saying that Australia had (two years ago). Some even then went on to figure point at the US.

Here is my thoughts about why Kyoto was always irrelevant.

Most countries that 'signed up' don't have any commitments (that was the only way to get them to sign). Most (All?) of those that did sign with commitments look like they won't meet their commitments.

The nature of the problem class (Tragedy of the Commons) means that everyone need to sign up to an agreed system of determining commitments. So they know what level of development will trigger commitments and what those commitments will be. The nature of the problem also meaning any action now (before global agreement) is only political manoeuvring and tokenism, and has no effect on the actual atmospheric carbon levels & climate. For every 'cow' you take off the commons, someone else will putting another 'cow' on (in China and India most likely).

As I've always said, there is no chance of global agreement until China & India fear civil unrest due to global warming (famine etc) more that they fear civil unrest due to poverty (staving because you're jobless). Don't think they are there yet, so I don't think anything will come from Copenhagen. Mind you the rhetoric from India in New York this last week in encouraging.

How best to spend your limited resources?

Building low carbon systems and building for resilience. What kinda low carbon systems to build now?

Resilience simply mean to do things to lessen the effect of global warning on you. Learn to grow you own food, add a rain water tank, renovate your house to be more solar passive, that kinda thing.

By all means build low carbon power sources, but remember what is important is only emissions during operations. You can emit all the carbon you want building it, you're only replacing coal fired power station carbon, in the race to get to China & India's climate pain threshold. Who know where the actual thresholds are? Guess we'll only know after we get there and everyone comes to a meaningful agreement!

Gnoll110

Global Warming: the biggest event of the year?

From a Global warming prospective, I think the biggest event of the year has just occurred.

What is it, you may ask. The 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Why do I think this?

Basically, the two lynch pins on turning Global warning around is China & India. There are other important players, like Russia, US, Australia, Canada, Brazil etc. But China & India are special. They are both huge emerging economies and members of the ‘Big Five’ coal nations.

The worst didn’t happen. The worst is that the ‘economics development at any cost’ faction could have gain complete ascendancy. There are socially conscience (anti-poverty) and environmental conscience factions that still hold some power in terms of numbers & positions held.

Basically I think emission global, can only start to decrease once BOTH Chinese and Indian governments think the likelihood of civil unrest & revolt caused climate chance are more likely than civil unrest & revolt caused by economic instability & poverty. Everyone else’s decreases in emissions will just be eaten up by China & India until this happens!


Gnoll110